Forex Signal Euro May Fall as Monetary Policy Trends fix

February Forex Signals Results 2017

Forex Signal Euro May Fall as Monetary Policy Trends fix

Forex Signal Euro May Fall as Monetary Policy Trends fix

The start of Brexit negotiations gets closer. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is weaving around legal / legislative barriers to meet a self-imposed deadline of triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of the next 2 months.

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Dramatic shift in the tone of US policy with the ascension of President Mr Donald Trump. Forex Signal Euro May Fall as Monetary Policy Trends fix – The new administration has its displeasure with what it sees with weak Euro / clashed ECB President Mr M Draghi about post crisis banking.

Not complex, however. Weigh up the EUR/USD exchange rate vs the spread between German and USA bond yields.

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Forex Signal Euro May Fall

Forex Signal Euro May Fall

All that political uncertainty means the ECB is unlikely to change tune soon. Federal Reserve is aiming to raise rates, even if the extent of ongoing tightening fiscal policy uncertainty.

This means the Fx Capital markets will find relatively little substance in fourth quarter Euro- zone GDP figures or Germany’s ZEW survey.

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UpcomingUK/EUEvent Risk

EventsDate, Time (GMT)ForecastPrevious
Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Jan)Feb 13, N/A1.3%
Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Feb 13, N/A2.9%
European Commission Economic ForecastsFeb 13, N/A

Semi-annual Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen may be a more potent catalyst. The Euro may get a lift if a cautious tone trims March rate hike bets. Follow-through may be limited however considering the priced-in probability of an increase is relatively modest at 28 percent.

A late-week meeting of G20 finance ministers in Germany may bring kneejerk volatility if the Trump administration’s combative stance on international trade and FX policy is on full display. A cordial Washington reception for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suggests otherwise however.

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On balance, an ultimate failure to dislodge the big-picture status quo is likely to bode ill for the single currency. Short-term price swings aside, there seems to be relatively little on offer in the days ahead that has real potential to divert the underlying, yields-based trend.

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