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March 17, 2020 Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary policy Meeting Minutes Read More

Core machinery orders in Japan posted a surprising rise during January, providing slight respite to growing worries about an economic slowdown in the country amid the coronavirus crisis. Although a highly volatile data to monitor, core machinery orders offers key insight into capital spending by businesses and climbed 2.9% higher MoM during January. This was a significant improvement from the previous month when the figure had contracted by 11.9% and even beat economists’ forecast for another contraction by 1.6% instead. However, the economic outlook for Japan remains grim in the wake of the escalating coronavirus outbreak across the country and the rest of the world. Economists have forecast an upcoming recession in the Japanese economy, after several months of strain due to US-China year tensions which had exerted significant pressure on its exports, a key contributor to economic growth. Over the weekend, Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe even proposed a temporary withdrawal of the recent sales tax hike in a bid to support the economy. Although the BOJ has limited scope for further easing with rates already negative, it is also expected to step in with emergency measures to contain further weakening of the economy. After the Fed’s second rate cut, the BOJ along with other leading central banks had committed to offering three-month credit in US dollars at cheaper rates to support the rising demand for the greenback amid heightened uncertainty in global markets.

March 16, 2020 Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Read More

EUR/USD made quite a climb in the last two weeks, despite the outbreak of coronavirus in Europe, particularly in Italy. Italian economy has been shut down and the rest of Europe will follow, which will hurt the economy and probably put it in recession, so the climb seemed strange. But, the climb ended at the 100 SMA (green) on the weekly time-frame chart. Buyers pushed above that moving average for a while, but that doesn’t quite count as a break, since the candlestick didn’t close above it. So, EUR/USD failed to break the 10 SMA and it seems like buyers gave up. After all, it was a respectable retrace, climbing from 1.07 lows to 1.15. But, the price reversed on Monday this week and it has been going down since then. Today, the decline picked up considerable pace, after the ECB announced it would increase QE by 120 billion Euros/month and announce new LTRO. The USD has also played a part in this, since it has been strengthening considerably today, so we have a bearish bias for this pair. Although it seems like the 50 SMA (yellow) has turned into support now for this pair. This moving average has been providing resistance before, but now it has turned into support, so the downtrend will only resume properly once the 50 SMA has been broken.

March 16, 2020 The Surge in EUR/USD is Over Now Read More

EUR/USD Weakens After ECB Stimulus Fails

March 16, 2020 EUR/USD Weakens After ECB Stimulus Fails Read More

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