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A raft of failures plagued forecasters in 2016. The Forex markets did not to see Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections including the last-minute OPEC production cut accord, with and the outcome of the Brexit referendums. Prices in the forex market widened as investors positioned after each tectonic movement shock seen by the forex change. This volatility may be a warm-up for fireworks in the January 2017 start to the financial year.
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After nearly two year consolidation, the US Dollar known as the ICE Index was finally driven to a bullish breakouts.
British Pound Q1 2017 Forecast Pound to Chart vs. Major Currencies in Early 2017 changes seen.
The Japanese Yen heads into the end of 2016 trading near multi-year highs versus the US Dollar, and economic developments suggest the JPY may finally break the ¥101 level before the year is through. Continued inaction from both the Bank of Japan and the US Fed Reserve represents the risk to the USD/JPY exchange rate seen. Key risks are the rise of trade protectionism and financial market volatility. And indeed, the status quo suggests the USD/JPY will likely fall further until we see major changes.
It was supposed to be the year of “divergence” in monetary policy as the US Fed Reserve would raise interest rates while the Bank of Japan and other global counterparts went in the opposite direction. FxPremiere Forex Signals news saw Suffice it to say the Federal Reserive did not hold up its end of the bargain—it hiked rates once at the end of 2015 but failed to match capital forex market expectations for further moves through 2016. This fact helps explain why the US-Dollar posted its worst eleven-month performance versus the Japanese yen since the Global FX Crisis. Forex Trading Signals News
BoJ would not meet capital market expectations for a straight forward reasoning: negative interest low rates were producing unwanted effects and with an aggressive QQE policy left the bank with little scope for further asset purchases. Forex Trading Signals News
Politics – Ahead of United States’ Presidential Election
One typical risk to betting on the Yen betting vs USD/JPY is Ministry of Finance intervention, and that seems an especially big risk as the USD/JPY approaches ¥101.
Japan stands to gain if the United States’ Congress and President approve the much-heralded Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Anti-trade sentiment has nonetheless come to the fore ahead of the US Dollar, Presidential Elections in November, and ratification of the TPP is far from certain. Aggressive currency manipulation from the Japanese Government could further raise the ire of the US politicians and effectively kill the TPP in its tracks. The Japanese MoF has certainly warned it could intervene if the Yen continues to strengthen, but these political calculations make those threats considerably less credible. Failure to act would clear the USD/JPY to break and stay below ¥100. Forex Trading Signals News
Will Markets Cooperate with the Japanese Yen?
The final wildcard for the Yen is not limited to Japan but especially relevant for its currency: will global financial markets remain stable? The near-term correlation between the USD/JPY exchange rate and the US S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)—also known as the “fear index”—recently hit its strongest in two years. The correlation has admittedly been volatile, and the USD/JPY shows little link to the VIX when the VIX is low. The fact the JPY surges (USD/JPY declines) when the VIX spikes higher helps to highlight the fact the Yen tends to strengthen in times of financial market turmoil. The recent jump in S&P volatility coincided with Yen strength, and any similar episodes of sharp S&P declines would also likely coincide with JPY gains.
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