Forex – US Dollar Rebound Looks for Fuel

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Forex – US Dollar Rebound Looks for Fuel

Talking Point:

Fed’s commitment to raising rates and normalizing pricing strategies.

US Dollar rebound may gather pace next few days; though the greenback still hasn’t bottomed yet.

After light trading condition marked the start of the week thanks to the US holiday yesterday, traders look for liquidity conditions to normalize a bit today from the first day in North America of trading again.

Forex - US Dollar Rebound Looks for Fuel

As market expectations are currently at odds with the Fed’s rates forecasts – Fed funds are pricing in March 2018 as the period most likely for the next rate hike, for example – an injection of hawkish commentary from the FOMC minutes could be enough fuel to allow the US Dollar’s short-term rebound to gather pace.

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Traders pushed the Euro sharply higher through mid-year on broad Euro Zone and favorable political developments with economic growth may be slowing, and it is not clear politics will continue to boost the Euro.

In particular, as US yields have continued to move higher, USD/JPY has started to break through key trend resistance from January while Gold loses key trend support over the same time horizon. Another burst higher in long-end US yields (the 10-year yield is up by ~20-bps the past week) should be enough to carry the greenback higher yet.

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