Fx Signals News 06 03 2021 Dollar Rises
FxPremiere.com – The dollar is set for a second weekly gain after rallying on Friday, on strong labor market data, but economists suggest the greenback’s resurgence will be limited as low inflation will persist.
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The U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs last month, well above economists’ consensus forecast of 182,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.2% from 6.3%, underpinned by easing Covid-19 restrictions and a ramp-up in vaccine distribution.
But a rapidly improving labor market, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into stronger inflation, which will likely keep the Fed on pause, stifling the dollar’s momentum.
“The USD appreciation potential remains limited for the time being […] as it is inflation that will determine when the US Federal Reserve will consider raising interest rates,” Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said. “[It] is likely to be a long time before the Fed is satisfied with the inflation trend, which is why we do not forecast any interest rate hikes within our forecast horizon (i.e. until the end of 2022) and thus also no USD appreciation trend.”
Commerzbank’s remarks echoed that of the Fed chairman Jerome Powell who downplayed the risk of a sustained uptick in inflation, and reiterated that current monetary policy measures are appropriate.
“There’s good reason to think we’ll begin to make more progress. But even if it happens, it’s likely to take some time to achieve substantial further progress, or interest rates to raise interest rates above zero.
The dollar gained in early European trading Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell largely dismissed concerns over rising Treasury yields.
At 3:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.1% at 91.760, a three-month high.
EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1957, just off a new three-month low, GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3872, USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 108.25, climbing to an eight-month high earlier in the session, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7710.
“It seems clear that upside risks to U.S. yields will dominate into the Fed meeting of 17 March, leaving both risk assets and short dollar positions vulnerable,” said analysts at ING, in a research note.
“Powell made it very clear that the U.S. has a long way to go to meet its full employment goals,” added ING, “Yet any stronger than expected numbers do risk exacerbating the bond sell-off and warns this dollar correction has further to run.”
Elsewhere, USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 6.4740, after China set a conservative economic growth target of above 6% for 2021 as the National People’s Congress opened earlier in the day.
Fx Signals News 06 03 2021 Dollar Rises Forex Signals – Dollar Weakens Ahead of Sterling
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