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While there is variability in assessing potential versus probability for different capital market events, it is hard to argue that the current balance through the market vastly under prices the risks the financial system faces moving forward. This is a no doubt another side effect of the complacency that is so prevalent across the global landscape. Looking ahead, the ‘easiest’ equation to make is the ECB rate decision. There is very little chance that a true change in monetary policy is in remotely in the cards. Therefore the focus is on the course of future policy intentions. In that breakdown, a persistence of vague dovish restraint is most likely with a market impact of a passive Euro retreat. Alternatively, if there are provocative views issued – perhaps the discussion of criteria for the first hike and/or loose scale of the stimulus withdrawal plan – the impact for the Euro could be quite severe. It would not be an exaggeration to suspect EUR/USD could shortly find its way above 1.1500 should the ECB make a clear effort to acclimate the world to a reversal on accommodation.
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