The Surge in EUR/USD is Over Now
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EUR/USD made quite a climb in the last two weeks, despite the outbreak of coronavirus in Europe, particularly in Italy. Italian economy has been shut down and the rest of Europe will follow, which will hurt the economy and probably put it in recession, so the climb seemed strange.
But, the climb ended at the 100 SMA (green) on the weekly time-frame chart. Buyers pushed above that moving average for a while, but that doesn’t quite count as a break, since the candlestick didn’t close above it. So, EUR/USD failed to break the 10 SMA and it seems like buyers gave up. After all, it was a respectable retrace, climbing from 1.07 lows to 1.15.
But, the price reversed on Monday this week and it has been going down since then. Today, the decline picked up considerable pace, after the ECB announced it would increase QE by 120 billion Euros/month and announce new LTRO. The USD has also played a part in this, since it has been strengthening considerably today, so we have a bearish bias for this pair.
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As a result, EUR/JPY made some strong bearish moves this month. But, we have seen two very decent pullbacks higher on the H4 chart, once last wek as EUR/USD surged higher for no reason and once this week, as the safe havens are retreating lower, also with no particular reason, because coronavirus hasn’t matured yet.
Today we saw another bullish move in this pair, as USD/JPY is heading towards 108, but I think that this is just a dead cat bounce, because the virus is still spreading and governments are shutting down life one after another. But, the 100 SMA seems to be holding as resistance, so we decided to open a sell signal, just below that, targeting 107 and with a stop above last month’s high
Although it seems like the 50 SMA (yellow) has turned into support now for this pair. This moving average has been providing resistance before, but now it has turned into support, so the downtrend will only resume properly once the 50 SMA has been broken.