Crypto Signals Live News — Thursday, August 21, 2025
August 21, 2025
Gold Signals Weekly Outlook: August 25–31, 2025
August 24, 2025
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Weekly Forecast
Forex Weekly Outlook: August 25–31, 2025
A catalyst-heavy finish to August puts the US Core PCE price index and the second estimate of Q2 US GDP in focus, flanked by US housing prints, Germany’s preliminary CPI, Australia’s Monthly CPI (July), Canada’s GDP, and China’s NBS PMIs. Below are concise playbooks and risk windows for the majors.
Dates are written in the publisher’s local time zone context with absolute calendar dates to avoid confusion. Always verify intraday release times on your terminal/economic calendar.
Key Events & Potential FX Impact (Aug 25–31)
| Date | Event | Likely FX Sensitivity | What Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Aug 25 | US New Home Sales (July) | USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF | Signs of demand resilience vs. financing costs; tends to tweak USD via growth/rates channel. |
| Tue, Aug 26 | US Durable Goods Orders (July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) | USD majors; risk FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) | Capex pulse (ex-transport), housing price momentum, and household sentiment shaping growth expectations. |
| Wed, Aug 27 | Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (July) | AUD pairs (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD) | Core momentum and services inflation guide RBA expectations; intraday AUD vol likely. |
| Thu, Aug 28 | US GDP Q2 (second estimate); US Pending Home Sales (July) | USD; cyclical FX | Revisions to consumption/inventories; housing forward-look (pending sales). |
| Fri, Aug 29 | US Personal Income & Outlays (July) incl. Core PCE; Germany CPI prelim (Aug); Canada GDP (Q2 and June) | USD, EUR, CAD; crosses | Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; euro area inflation read-through via Germany; Canada growth mix and BoC path. |
| Sun, Aug 31 | China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs (Aug) | CNH, AUD, NZD, commodities FX | Demand/credit pulse and policy tone—risk sentiment into the new week. |
USD: PCE & GDP Drive the Narrative
Baseline: Markets will anchor on the Core PCE trend and any material GDP revisions. A firmer-than-expected core PCE keeps “higher for longer” risk alive; softer prints revive cut probabilities.
USD Playbook
- Hot Core PCE (broad-based services strength): USD bid vs. EUR/GBP/AUD; USD/JPY upside if US yields back up—watch 2Y/10Y moves.
- Soft Core PCE (core services cool): USD fades, gold and risk FX find a bid; EUR/USD and GBP/USD bounce favoured on dips.
- GDP revisions: Upward revision + strong consumption supports USD; downward revision undermines USD into month-end.
Vol windows: Tue (durables/confidence), Thu (GDP), Fri (PCE). Liquidity can thin into month-end flows.
EUR: Watching Germany CPI (Prelim)
Baseline: Germany’s preliminary CPI steers euro area inflation expectations into early September and can skew ECB rhetoric pricing.
EUR Playbook
- Hotter Germany CPI: EUR supported on front-end yields; watch EUR/USD topside w/ US data benign.
- Softer Germany CPI: EUR offered; EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP vulnerable if US data simultaneously firm.
AUD: Monthly CPI in Focus
Baseline: The Monthly CPI Indicator (July) shapes near-term RBA expectations. Services stickiness can keep AUD underpinned; a cooler print pressures AUD, especially if China PMIs also disappoint.
AUD Playbook
- Upside CPI surprise: AUD/USD dips likely supported; AUD/JPY resilient on yield differentials.
- Downside CPI surprise: AUD underperforms vs. USD/EUR; beta to China PMIs increases.
CAD: Double-Barrel GDP
Baseline: Canada’s Q2 and June GDP give a cleaner read on growth momentum. Stronger domestic demand can trim BoC easing bets; weakness re-opens CAD downside.
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CAD Playbook
- Stronger GDP: USD/CAD downside tests on better terms of trade; CAD crosses supported.
- Weaker GDP: USD/CAD rebounds; watch spillovers from US PCE at the same time window.
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CNY & China PMIs: Weekend Risk
Baseline: NBS PMIs drop over the weekend and can gap risk FX on Monday’s open. Manufacturing sub-indices (new orders, employment) and policy-tone paragraphs are key.
Asia Sentiment Playbook
- PMIs >= 50: Risk tone improves; AUD/NZD bid, USD/JPY upside on global yields.
- PMIs < 50: Risk tone sours; USD bid vs. beta FX, yen can catch haven flows if equities wobble.
Positioning Notes & Risk
- Month-end flows can distort late-week price action—size down around Friday’s PCE and into the close.
- Second-pass trades: If initial spikes on data are extreme, consider fading toward pre-event value areas once liquidity normalizes.
- Stops outside obvious swing highs/lows; avoid clustering near session extremes.
Keywords: forex news, forex forecast, USD outlook, EUR outlook, GBP outlook, JPY outlook, AUD outlook, CAD outlook, Core PCE, US GDP second estimate, Germany CPI, Australia CPI, Canada GDP, China PMIs, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller, Pending Home Sales, risk management.
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