Scenario A: Yields up + USD firm → Gold pressured

Bearish XAU • sell rallies

• What it looks like: clean downside breaks, shallow pullbacks, heavier tape into NY.
• Best approach: short failed retests into resistance; take partials faster (mean-reversion risk).
• Invalidation rule: reclaim and hold back above the broken level.

Scenario B: Yields down + USD soft → Gold supported

Bullish XAU • buy dips

• What it looks like: higher-lows, break + retest continuation, stronger London moves.
• Best approach: buy dip retests into support with confirmation (reclaim + higher-low).
• Invalidation rule: breakdown closes below the support shelf.

Scenario C: USD/yields whip → Gold chop (range regime)

Range • fade extremes

• What it looks like: long wicks, false breaks, rapid reversals around headlines.
• Best approach: trade only range edges (weekly high/low, prior day extremes) with small targets.
• Primary defense: lower size and fewer trades.

One filter that improves win-rate

• If the first event spike fails and returns inside the prior range, expect mean reversion (Scenario C).
• If the spike holds and prints a base, the retest is the trade (Scenario A or B).

Model 1: Break + Retest (trend continuation)

• Use when: USD/yields are directional (Scenario A or B).
• Entry: retest after the breakout holds (confirmation candle).
• Risk: invalidation just beyond the retest level; partials at first extension.

Model 2: Failed Break (reversal)

• Use when: event spikes fail quickly (Scenario C).
• Entry: reclaim back inside the range after the fakeout.
• Risk: tight; reversals can snap back fast.

Model 3: Range mean-reversion (edges only)

• Use when: no clear USD/yield trend; mixed data.
• Entry: rejection at range edges with confirmation.
• Risk: small targets; don’t overstay.

Non-negotiable risk rules

• No averaging down during event volatility.
• Reduce size Thursday–Friday.
• One model per session (don’t mix trend + mean reversion randomly).