EUR/USD is trading at 1.1205, down 0.26% on the day, and sits just 0.0028 above its 20-day low of 1.1177. GBP/USD is at 1.3376, down 0.19% but still up 0.97% on the week. With Thursday's European session over, attention turns to Friday's flash PMIs, which start at 06:00 UTC with UK retail sales.
Key figures
| Instrument | Last | Daily change | Change % | 20-day high | 20-day low | 20-day average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1205 | -0.0029 | -0.26% | 1.1403 | 1.1177 | 1.1248 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3376 | -0.0026 | -0.19% | 1.3402 | 1.3201 | 1.32701 |
| USD/JPY | 157.05 | -0.83 | -0.53% | 158.6 | 156.88 | 157.889 |
These are daily reference values. The day high and low equal the last price, so they say nothing about the intraday range. The result of today's 12:30 UTC US jobless claims release is also not in the data used here.
Is the dollar stronger or weaker today?
The dollar is mixed today. It gained against the euro and the pound, but it lost ground against the yen.
- EUR/USD fell 0.26% from a previous close of 1.1234, which is a firmer dollar against the euro.
- GBP/USD fell 0.19% from 1.3402, a firmer dollar against sterling.
- USD/JPY fell 0.53% from 157.88 to 157.05, a softer dollar against the yen.
This matters because a single-currency story is easier to trade than a mixed one. Today's moves look partly specific to the euro and the pound rather than a clean broad dollar rally. Over the week, EUR/USD is almost flat at -0.03%, while GBP/USD is up 0.97%. Sterling has been the stronger of the two.
What are the key EUR/USD levels to watch?
The most important EUR/USD level is the 20-day low at 1.1177, only 0.0028 below the current price. The pair is also below its 20-day average of 1.1248, so it is trading in the weaker half of its recent range.
- 1.1177: the 20-day low. A daily close below it would mark a fresh low for the period and could point to further euro weakness.
- 1.1234: the previous close. Reclaiming it would undo today's decline.
- 1.1248: the 20-day average. A move back above it would suggest the pullback is fading.
- 1.1403: the 20-day high, well above the current price, which shows how much ground the pair has given up.
A hold above 1.1177 would keep the recent range intact. A break would change the picture, though one close is not a trend.
What are the key GBP/USD levels to watch?
For GBP/USD the key level is 1.3402, which is both the previous close and the 20-day high. The pair is only 0.0026 below it after today's dip.
- 1.3402: the 20-day high. A daily close above it would extend the week's 0.97% advance.
- 1.32701: the 20-day average, roughly 0.0069 below the current price. It is a reference for how stretched the recent rise is.
- 1.3201: the 20-day low, the floor of the recent range.
The gap between the two pairs is clear. EUR/USD is close to its range low, while GBP/USD is close to its range high. That divergence makes the euro-versus-sterling data on Friday morning especially relevant.
What data could move the euro, pound and dollar on Friday?
Friday is dense with flash PMIs and one UK retail sales release. All times are UTC, and all events are medium impact.
Today, already released
- 12:30 USD Unemployment Claims: forecast 200K, previous 199K. The outcome is not included in the data here.
Friday 23 October
- 06:00 GBP Retail Sales m/m: forecast -0.1%, previous 0.5%.
- 07:15 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.5, previous 50.3.
- 07:15 EUR French Flash Services PMI: forecast 50.7, previous 51.4.
- 07:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.5, previous 53.8.
- 07:30 EUR German Flash Services PMI: forecast 52.5, previous 52.9.
- 08:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 51.8, previous 52.0.
- 08:30 GBP Flash Services PMI: forecast 51.8, previous 51.7.
- 13:45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 55.4, previous 57.0.
- 13:45 USD Flash Services PMI: forecast 57.9, previous 58.7.
- 14:00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: forecast 46.3, previous 46.3.
- 14:00 USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: no forecast, previous 4.7%.
For the euro, forecasts point to slightly softer German readings and a notable dip in French services, from 51.4 to 50.7. A result below forecast would add pressure to a pair already near its 20-day low. A stronger print would give it some support.
For sterling, the sequence starts with retail sales, where a fall of 0.1% is expected after a 0.5% gain. The PMIs follow at 08:30. Services are forecast to edge up to 51.8 from 51.7.
For the dollar, the US PMIs are forecast to ease from high levels, with manufacturing at 55.4 versus 57.0 and services at 57.9 versus 58.7. Even so, both would remain well above 50. The inflation expectations figure, which was 4.7% previously, is worth watching because it has no consensus forecast to measure surprise against.
Many traders compare how pairs behave around the European open and the US crossover. Our guide on trading the London open and New York crossover covers that timing in more detail.
How does the dollar link to gold and other markets?
A firmer dollar against the euro and the pound often matters for dollar-priced assets such as gold, although the relationship is not constant. For background, see our explainer on the macroeconomic drivers of gold, including real yields and the dollar index. If you follow metals as well as currencies, our guide to choosing gold signals explains what to check first. You can also keep up with other releases on our live forex news page.
Frequently asked questions
Where is EUR/USD trading today?
EUR/USD is at 1.1205, down 0.0029 or 0.26% from the previous close of 1.1234. It is above the 20-day low of 1.1177 and below the 20-day average of 1.1248.
Is GBP/USD still near its recent highs?
Yes. GBP/USD is at 1.3376, only 0.0026 below the 20-day high of 1.3402, and it is up 0.97% on the week. Today's 0.19% dip has not changed that picture so far.
Which Friday releases matter most for EUR/USD and GBP/USD?
The German and French flash PMIs at 07:15 and 07:30 UTC are the main euro events. For sterling, UK retail sales at 06:00 UTC and the flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC matter most. The US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and the UoM data at 14:00 UTC can then shift the dollar side of both pairs.
Trading involves risk, and you can lose more than you expect. The levels and scenarios above are for education only and are not financial advice.
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