EUR/USD enters the European session at 1.1205 after a 0.26% fall, close to its 20-day low of 1.1177. GBP/USD is at 1.3376, down 0.19% on the day but still up 0.97% over the week and just below its 20-day high of 1.3402. A full slate of flash PMIs for the euro area, the UK and the US is the main event risk today.
The prices below are the latest closing values in our data, dated 22 October. Quotes may have moved in early trading, so check your own platform for live levels.
Key figures
| Instrument | Last | Daily change | Change % | 20-day high | 20-day low | 20-day average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1205 | -0.0029 | -0.26% | 1.1403 | 1.1177 | 1.1248 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3376 | -0.0026 | -0.19% | 1.3402 | 1.3201 | 1.32701 |
| USD/JPY | 157.05 | -0.83 | -0.53% | 158.6 | 156.88 | 157.889 |
Is the dollar stronger or weaker going into the European session?
The dollar picture is mixed rather than one-directional. It edged higher against the euro and the pound, but fell against the yen.
EUR/USD lost 0.26% and GBP/USD lost 0.19%, which points to modest dollar strength against those two. USD/JPY, however, dropped 0.53% to 157.05, only 0.17 above its 20-day low of 156.88. That suggests the yen was the stronger currency on the day, while the dollar was not broadly bid.
The weekly numbers add nuance. EUR/USD is down just 0.03% on the week, so Thursday's decline has largely erased earlier gains. GBP/USD is still up 0.97% over the same period, and the pound has been the stronger of the two majors. For more on how the dollar index feeds into other markets, see our guide to the macroeconomic drivers of gold, including real yields and the DXY.
What are the key EUR/USD levels to watch?
The key EUR/USD level is the 20-day low at 1.1177, which sits only 0.0028 below the last close.
- 1.1177: the 20-day low. A daily close below it would mean the pair has broken its recent range to the downside.
- 1.1248: the 20-day average. The pair is 0.0043 below it, so this is the first area where a recovery could meet resistance.
- 1.1403: the 20-day high. It is a long way above the current price, about 0.0198, so it is not an immediate factor.
The pair sits in the lower part of a range that is about 0.0226 wide. A hold above 1.1177 followed by a move back through the average would suggest the recent weakness is easing. A close under 1.1177 would show sellers still in control.
What are the key GBP/USD levels to watch?
The key GBP/USD level is the 20-day high at 1.3402, which is 0.0026 above the last close and was also Wednesday's closing level.
- 1.3402: the 20-day high. A daily close above it would extend the pound's recent run to a new 20-day peak.
- 1.32701: the 20-day average. The pair trades about 0.0066 above it, so the trend over the month is still positive.
- 1.3201: the 20-day low, roughly 0.0175 below the last close.
Thursday's 0.19% dip pulled the pair back slightly from its high. Whether it can retest 1.3402 may depend on the UK data this morning.
Which data releases could move the euro, pound and dollar today?
Today is dominated by flash PMIs, which are early readings of business activity. A figure above 50 signals expansion. All times are UTC.
- 06:00, GBP Retail Sales m/m: forecast -0.1%, previous 0.5%. This was due before this article was written, and our data does not include the result. Check the actual figure, as it may already be shaping sterling.
- 07:15, EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.5, previous 50.3.
- 07:15, EUR French Flash Services PMI: forecast 50.7, previous 51.4.
- 07:30, EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.5, previous 53.8.
- 07:30, EUR German Flash Services PMI: forecast 52.5, previous 52.9.
- 08:30, GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 51.8, previous 52.0.
- 08:30, GBP Flash Services PMI: forecast 51.8, previous 51.7.
- 13:45, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: forecast 55.4, previous 57.0.
- 13:45, USD Flash Services PMI: forecast 57.9, previous 58.7.
- 14:00, USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: forecast 46.3, previous 46.3.
- 14:00, USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: previous 4.7%, no forecast given.
How the releases could matter
Forecasts point to slightly softer readings in most of the euro area. The exception is French manufacturing, expected to edge up. For EUR/USD, which is already near its 20-day low, readings below forecast could add pressure. Readings above forecast could help the pair recover towards the 20-day average.
UK services is the one PMI forecast to rise, from 51.7 to 51.8. The US flash PMIs are forecast lower, but they remain well above the European readings, so the level of US activity matters as much as the direction. Traders often see the gap between US and European PMIs as a cross-check on relative growth.
Releases at 07:15 and 07:30 UTC fall just after the London open. Spreads can widen and price can move quickly, so many traders prefer to wait for the first reaction rather than anticipate it. Our session guide to the London open and New York crossover covers this in more detail.
How does the euro move affect gold?
Gold priced in euros stands at 3,595.64 in our data. Euro-based gold prices move with both the dollar gold price and EUR/USD, so a weaker euro can lift gold in euro terms even when the dollar price is unchanged. For dollar-based gold levels and trade ideas, see our gold signals page, and for the wider flow of market updates visit our live forex news section.
Frequently asked questions
Where is EUR/USD trading today?
EUR/USD last closed at 1.1205 in our data, down 0.0029 or 0.26% on the day. That is 0.0028 above the 20-day low of 1.1177 and 0.0043 below the 20-day average of 1.1248.
Where is GBP/USD trading today?
GBP/USD last closed at 1.3376, down 0.0026 or 0.19%. It is up 0.97% on the week and sits 0.0026 below its 20-day high of 1.3402.
What are the most important data releases today?
The flash PMIs for Germany and France (07:15 and 07:30 UTC), the UK (08:30 UTC) and the US (13:45 UTC) are the main events. UK retail sales at 06:00 UTC and US consumer sentiment at 14:00 UTC add to the picture.
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